Russia Is Still The Leader

If US is the leader of the West, Russia is still the leader of the Non-West, namely, everyone else. US is still way too powerful. You either side with them or seek protection from the second largest campaign, that is, Russia. China is still too weak to take on that responsibility, meaning, the balancing of world powers. I am watching some Chinese military channels nowadays. They seem to be a lot more humble and realistic than a few years ago. I like it, because that will improve their credibility both inside and outside of China. Given that the Communist Party of China cannot possibly convince Chinese people that they can defend China for them, they still rely on Russian stories to explain why there is not much to worry about. Just say Russia, and Chinese people will calm down and feel a little more confident. They have been doing this for decades. Hopefully, things will change a little in 10-20 years.

Railguns on stealth destroyers indeed pose a certain threat to China. The best conventional guns cannot possibly fire beyond 3 km/s in speed, but railguns can easily fire beyond 7 km/s in speed, which conveniently translates to hundreds of kilometers in range, if not beyond a thousand. Usually, this is not a problem, because it takes only a missile or a torpedo to sink a warship while it takes a lot of fire power to flatten an area. Navy can never win unless the technological gap between two nations exceeds 20-30 years or the defender is really stupid. So, why worry? Why even mention Russia to comfort Chinese people? Can’t Chinese cruise missiles exceed a couple of thousands of kilometers in range?

Stealth. A stealth destroyer looks like a fishing boat on radars, but in South China Sea or East China Sea there are always lots of fishing boats everywhere. How does a cruise missile know which one to hit? Torpedoes? Railguns are already hitting you. How long does it take a submarine to travel a few hundred kilometers? Do you think a destroyer has enough fire power to keep on firing for a few days? Don’t bother. You need air force. You need a long-range stealth fighter to get there within an hour, possibly a few minutes, and kill that destroyer immediately. J-20 is still not ready for service. Maybe that’s why China is panicking. Don’t worry. Railguns are not ready, either. Let’s see who gets ready first.

Range. Range is everything. Range gives you physical immunity in naval warfare.

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Russian Torpedoes Revisited

China is building its underwater Great Wall as a new defense line (https://youtu.be/cR65SbxHsSg). The concept is extremely easy, just costly. Is it possible that US will be building such a wall soon? If so, together with the perfection of directed energy weaponry, what else can penetrate anti-nuclear defense lines to achieve nuclear equality, namely, mutual annihilation? Well, if both sides are indeed impenetrable, it will be a new status called symmetric nuclear incapacity, the ideal state for peace lovers. Unfortunately, that’s not what soldiers want to achieve. What they want instead is nuclear equality as the bottom line and nuclear supremacy as the ultimate objective, just because nuclear equality is rather easy to achieve as a minimum requirement. No worries. The new Great Wall that China is building will take time, possibly decades, if they don’t know what they are doing.

Basically, the main idea of the new Great Wall is to deploy sonars and sensors everywhere to capture all underwater background noise and then to decipher what the noise may mean. It takes highly trained pattern recognition specialists to be able to read nearly random signals. For example, Russia has been working on long wavelength radars for decades, only recently to deploy S-400 with barely satisfactory results. Also, Huang, Xue-dong, developed the Sphinx-II system at Carnegie Mellon University with Raj Reddy and Lee, Kai-fu, who confessed about spending hours a day, each and every day, in order to make the breakthrough in speech recognition. Pattern recognition is a special talent like the physical sense of Albert Einstein, rarely found among ordinary human beings. Talent recruitment will be a huge problem if China doesn’t know what they are looking for. Fortunately, most talents we know in complex pattern recognition have their eastern root, Russian, Chinese or Indian. It means that there may be a much higher concentration of such talents in those nations than elsewhere. So, China has an advantage. No worries. Where humans fall short, animals make up. Underwater creatures tend to possess superhuman capabilities in sound signal processing. If US knows what they are looking for, they might not fall short. Now, what about Russian giant torpedoes? How are they supposed to penetrate the most impenetrable nuclear defense lines? Well, those torpedoes make absolutely no sound, a technology that only Russia possesses. After all, they have the most quiet submarines in the world. But, even the most quiet torpedoes can be caught sometimes. What do they do? Well, they can go supersonic or even hypersonic underwater once caught. Theoretically, if those torpedoes spin fast enough, water resistance can be minimized. Well, that’s in theory. Of course, it won’t be that easy.

Now, in the most unlikely scenario where torpedoes cannot possibly accomplish their missions, how can nuclear equality be achieved? Well, you still can take the old-school approach to annihilate all enemy satellites first and then use the first wave of nuclear missiles as large-area electromagnetic bombs, which is not that perfect. Otherwise, you will need some sort of superreflective materials for the inner layer of your stealth missiles, the extra weight only to protect them against directed energy weaponry, which shouldn’t take that long to research and develop. Given that directed energy weaponry are very difficult to make, it may not be wise to overspend in this area for now. However, it makes sense to gauge the theoretical limits of these superreflective materials only to assess if directed energy weaponry will actually be the future of warfare.

Russian giant torpedoes can still have their day. Stay tuned.

I am beginning to watch some Chinese military channels now, such as HangZhou TV Military Official Channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/isagachannel), because American reconnaissance doesn’t seem to be able to provide enough information for Western media. Is the Chinese language really that difficult?

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Space Shuttle Resurrected

The shuttle program is resurrected, but in a vastly different time and place, today in India. I don’t know how American shuttle engineers see it, but I definitely have my own opinion. Space shuttles are too expensive to maintain. That’s why Elon Musk is going for reusable rockets, with good early success. I don’t know when Elon is going to make Falcon Heavy reusable, too, but if he has no plans, then I understand why India is doing what they are doing (http://qz.com/690018/the-made-in-india-space-shuttle-has-just-passed-its-first-big-test/). There’s something interesting about the Indian national pride, a very different kind of taste compared to all other national prides, Chinese, Russian or even American. Somehow, they want to go all alone with their space programs, but absolutely with Russia when it comes to their defense programs. See, space is about face but defense is about existence. I don’t see the logic here. Why copy NASA? Well, the space shuttle is the only reusable heavy lifter in human history.

It was so expensive that it was considered a failure, defeating the original objective of reusability. Why copy still? Well, India must have a way to cut down the astronomical maintenance cost. Let me see. Indians are extremely cheap, so ISRO can easily hire 100,000 maintenance workers to maintain the shuttles, something that US couldn’t afford. That’s it. Problems solved. Damn! If you are going to talk to me about the Indian national pride again, please use robots instead of Indians to do the boring maintenance work. Plus, mistakes people make, but robots will not commit human errors. Remember, if you just miss one single tile, the shuttle is doomed. Use robots, by all means. What’s more? You can even ask Americans why they couldn’t have figured it out. Now, we are talking about the real Indian national pride.

Thank you for considering my advice.

Oh, why space shuttles instead of Falcon Heavy? Don’t you prefer an SUV to a hatchback? Payload matters, but volume capacity is not to be ignored.

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Yet Another Sensational News Article

I tend not to talk about social issues, not even those in US, mostly because I don’t have time to cover them. However, as I was reading about news from China using Google News, I found this news article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/world/2016/05/02/china-domestic/). The story is really long and meant to be sensational, so I am not going into the details. The comments seem to be not as enthusiastic as they should. I guess Americans have developed some sort of immune system against sensational writing. Anyways. You read the news and tell me. If you don’t have time for it, I don’t blame you.

The first turn-off is the statement that a quarter of Chinese women are beaten, in the fourth paragraph. That’s really incredible. Any evidence, please? If the crime rate is really that high, it’s literally impossible to cover it up, no matter how powerful the Chinese government is. We humans simply don’t have the technology to achieve that level of control. By the way, who is the state that gave the estimate? The Chinese government? I say it would be incredibly honest of them if that statement were true. I know the actual data might be extremely difficult to obtain, but there’s no need to exaggerate to lose credibility, either. Note well that the news agency is Washington Post in question. Shame on them given their international repute.

The sixth paragraph talks about Kim Lee (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm4292233/), an American actress who married a Chinese businessman. Naturally, I googled her out of curiosity, as I had never heard of her before. There’s not much information about her on the Internet. Well, she never really made it in Hollywood anyway, based on her biography and filmography at IMDb. The news article gives a link to the old news covered by New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/opinion/abuse-fear-and-shame-in-china.html), in the Opinion Pages, written by Kim Lee herself. I don’t know if she gave up her American citizenship, because China doesn’t accept dual nationality. That would have been a very serious mistake. Again, if you really want to marry a Chinese man, you make sure that he comes to US to live with you instead of the other way around. Isn’t it easier to breathe fresh air in US anyway? After all, if the guy thinks the Chinese government is that good and the American government is a Chinese enemy, why does he want to marry an American woman? Isn’t it some form of revenge to begin with? No one wants to marry an enemy unless he or she is insane. However, if the guy really wants to be an American, it is a good sign. In any case, I personally don’t know anyone wanting to settle down in China permanently. It’s nearly unthinkable for most people in Western nations.

The state in the fourth paragraph probably refers to the All-China Women’s Federation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-China_Women%27s_Federation), which made the claim about 25% of women in China being beaten according to Kim Lee in her opinion article at New York Times. Still, an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary evidence. I am pretty sure that most urban Americans in large American cities know more than 50 Chinese friends, a sample size reasonable enough to do their own statistical analysis if they are willing to include their friends of friends. I mean, 25% is really high. Don’t you think so?

US is trying too hard in painting Russia and China as the evil states in this world. True, these two governments may be evil, but their people are not necessarily so. Let me ask you one question. Do Chinese people even have the right to choose their own government? If not, how can they be evil? Aren’t they the victims? Why are you trying that hard to further victimize the victims?

Common sense, please. My two cents.

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How Close Is US To Global Nuclear Supremacy?

This is old news, but it’s worthy of mention (http://breakingdefense.com/2015/02/are-missile-defense-lasers-on-the-verge-of-reality/), because I am not sure if Russia and China were even paying attention to Lockheed Martin. Recently, both countries revealed nuclear tests to show their teeth (http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-tests-hypersonic-glide-vehicle/ & http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-missiles-idUSKCN0XI0SE), all without a clear awareness of the readiness of American directed energy weaponry. Once US has a global missile detection system with sufficient precision and accuracy, global nuclear supremacy is readily achievable. Today, I even read about a Russian blonde surviving multiple explosions (http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/510614/Terminator-bomb-proof-suit-Russia-video-YouTube-Dmitry-Rogozin-Facebook). What’s going on? Are Russian giant torpedoes ready to deploy?

A megaton-class nuclear warhead can disable an area with a radius of a few hundred miles, where all deployed radars and weaponry will be rendered useless. Sweeping through the entire US with nuclear warheads on cruise missiles is feasible, but the first wave of attack must be done with torpedoes.

Is US laughing? I don’t know. They don’t seem to be making comments nowadays. I am just saying that in order to guarantee complete annihilation you must have at least three methods of attack at your disposal. So, you will still need more than just torpedoes and cruise missiles. I say, let’s start first with wiping out all US satellites with the click of a button. That should be one of the cheapest ways to guarantee nuclear equality. Of course, US can do the same to both Russia and China. I am just saying that with each new strategic technology comes a new strategic military thinking. You have the technology, but you need to know how to use it and counter it intelligently. It’s not only about having all the pieces but also about knowing how to play the chess game.

Well, both sides sill have about 5-10 years to come up with new nuclear strategies. Maybe that’s why US is a little quiet now. Nah, please don’t tell me anything about US election as an excuse. If the new American president doesn’t even know the importance of national defense, there’s just not much else to say about him or her. Stay tuned.

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America Moving Beyond F-35

F-35 is sort of like a failure due to its high cost, and yet is kind of like a success because most American allies are buying anyway. They have a choice, right? They could have stayed with upgraded F-15, F-16 and F-18 without adopting F-35. In any case, stealth is paramount. Unless you have advanced jamming to disable all incoming missiles, invisibility is your only protection. Losing air superiority is losing conventional warfare. Unless you can afford nuclear supremacy, you don’t want to upgrade to unconventional warfare. You desperately need air supremacy as a buffer. That’s the message from F-35 Chief (http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/03/f-35-chief-think-very-very-hard-making-another-joint-fighter/126587/). US needs to move beyond F-35 but has to think very hard about what it needs.

A key revolution of the American 6th generation fighters is the addition of directed energy weaponry, which may be ready before 2025 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth-generation_jet_fighter). Of course, they can easily mount the same laser gun on F-35 or even F-15, which will give them an unlimited range of attack at the speed of light. This is supposed to be worrisome for American foes, but Russia seems confident in talking about their 7th generation fighters (http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/03/02/Move-Over-F-35-Russia-Has-Raised-Stakes-Next-Generation-Fighters). Why? American fighters still have to aim, but Russian radars are superior so Russian fighters will see them first. So, why are Americans not too worried? Well, Russians don’t have laser guns. They see but they can’t shoot, because missiles are too easy to intercept with powerful enough laser. US has decades of R&D experience in directed energy weaponry but Russia was too focused on radars instead. So, why are Russians not too worried? Well, remember back in the good old days when Russian pilots illegally blinded American pilots with laser? Even the laser technology from the 50’s can kill pilots from afar. Ok, but isn’t it true that American 6th generation fighters will be unmanned? Ah, but Russians think that’s very difficult to achieve, so they will probably just wait and see.

One thing I like about Russia is that I will never have to worry about their national defense. The only problem Russia is facing today is economy, but even then Russia is one of the richest nations in the world. The only reason why the Russian economy is a problem is that Russians are comparing themselves to Americans. They try to copy American capitalism, but it will not work for them. For two reasons, firstly, Russian bureaucracy remains a stumbling block for business activities, and secondly, Russians are not as greedy as Americans. Capitalism is driven by greed, but most northern nations lack that type of culture in their societies, including Canada, Norway, Sweden and Finland. In fact, northern societies are mostly socialist and run better under socialism. This is not true with China, because I constantly have to worry about China. What is China doing about their national defense recently? Nothing, except for some restructuring and layoffs.

Though Russia might be the most vigilant nation in the world in terms of defense and security, Russia should be worried about directed energy weaponry. If even F-15 can shoot down a satellite with a pellet, directed energy weaponry can be used to shoot down intercontinental missiles or even cruise missiles, a capability that can accomplish global nuclear supremacy. We’ll see how it goes.

There’s not much to worry about if you are on the American side. American drone technology is advanced enough to create a fleet of unmanned fighters. They may not be able to handle dogfight or anything too complicated for AI, but they probably won’t have to. Of course, US wants to do better than that, so Russia and not US should be the one to worry about the next step of national defense. Stay tuned, because both US and Russia are working very hard now.

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Poetry Can Be Fun, Right?

Recently, I was spending quite a bit of time on Tang poetry translation in the hope of finding new career possibilities. After all, AlphaGo just beat the best human Go player in the world, the most complex perfect information board game so far in human history. The next move for Alphabet, formerly Google, the biggest company in the world, will be to find a new direction for their AI development. Well, a good idea will be to create the best AI poet in the world, beating every professional poet in all human languages. Poetry has to do with the deepest human emotions throughout its historical development. Making an AI poet will be a huge step toward SUPERHUMAN emotional and psychological intelligence, not to mention that automated translation is still a huge market underdeveloped. Well, before we even talk about a machine that can do a better job than humans, we must make sure that we humans can actually do a good job to begin with. For nearly 200 years, Tang poetry has been poorly translated, by western and eastern writers alike. The gap between English and Chinese is simply too wide. English speakers can rarely achieve a proficient level of Chinese. Neither can Chinese speakers do so in the opposite direction.

Let me show you the best translation of a Tang poem in history at Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_poetry#Exemplary_verse). I am not going to copy and paste it here, but as you can see, it’s really such a joke. We wonder if the translator actually spoke any Chinese at all. Du, Fu, was the poetry chief of Tang, whose mastery was impossible to surpass in his time. However, the translator thought that he had not yet attained fame. His English is also quite average, which you can easily compare to the works of some better known English writers. That’s it. That is the best translation available throughout the past 200 years, simply unbelievable. Now you can compare that to my personal translation here (https://chineselyricpoetry.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/rambling-at-night-on-a-trip/). Obviously, my Chinese is a lot better as my first language. So, at least you get some more accurate translation. Well, that explains my absence here for the past one month.

You can also copy and paste the poem into Google Translate, where to enjoy a funny joke. Google doesn’t even know the difference between Chinese and Japanese, but I told Google that the poem was Chinese.

Xi Cao shore breeze
Weiqiangduye boat
Star wide vertical Hirano (Hey, it’s Japanese!)
Jiang Liu Yong big month
How can the name of the article
Old officer shall sickness
What are fluttering like
Jonathan Livingston Seagull (What the heck are you talking about?)

Obviously, Google cannot even get 5% of the poem right. If the best and biggest company in the world is doing such a lousy job on automated translation, then hope is high that if I create a software startup just to do that, Google will buy me at 5 billion dollars at the minimum. Poetry can be fun, right?

That’s it. I’ve done my April commitment at this blog.

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